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A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."